Cocoa Origin Climate Risk Dashboard
Live rainfall (Open-Meteo, KV-cached) · cocoa growing zones · ENSO outlook across four origins + global composite
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Rainfall · Open-MeteoDryWet
Cocoa growing zone
Capital / city
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Full-Range Climate Panorama
· −60 → +60 days · cocoa belt vs national · dashed = 5-yr avg · shaded = phenological stage
Live belt & national series stop at the +14-day forecast horizon
(no point forecast is drawn beyond it); the dashed line is the 5-year daily average and the
shaded bands mark the active phenological stage (current date = vertical line).
🌧 Rainfall · mm/day
🌡 Temperature · °C
Cocoa Phenological Calendar
· four growth stages × two crop cycles · dashed line = current month
Rainfall is live daily precipitation from the Open-Meteo forecast API, sampled on a lon/lat grid per country and
inverse-distance interpolated across the map; the 5-year historical average (used for the % / °C anomalies and the
panorama reference line) is the Open-Meteo archive API over 2020–2024. The Conditions period buttons span −60 days
of archive/forecast history to a +14-day forecast horizon (point forecasts are not drawn beyond +14 days). All
weather requests are served via a Cloudflare Worker that caches Open-Meteo in KV and refreshes it every 6 hours
(cron); the “Data as of” stamp shows the cache time (now also per-origin on each scoring card), and the
Worker falls back to a live Open-Meteo call when a key is missing or stale > 8 h.
The “Seasonal Outlook (ENSO-based)” tab is probabilistic, not a point forecast: it reads the current ENSO
phase and summarises what that phase’s historical analog years (Open-Meteo archive, 2010–2024) delivered during
each origin’s next active phenological window — shown as a min/median/max band, not a deterministic prediction.
The growing-conditions predictor, the temperature chart and the cocoa-belt rainfall series are read from a single
growing-region centroid per origin (Ecuador 1.5°S 79.3°W; Côte d'Ivoire 6.3°N 6.8°W; Ghana 6.7°N 2.3°W; Indonesia
2.55°S 120.30°E, Luwu/Sulawesi); “National avg” is the 3×3 country-grid mean shown for reference only.
Temperature is Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_mean) for historical windows and the forecast API for
forward windows; the most recent days of the historical series are filled from the forecast where ERA5 lags.
The Global tab is a production-weighted composite of the per-origin scores (ICCO 2023/24 shares, normalised at
runtime). Composite scores weight rainfall and temperature by the current phenological stage and are not an agronomic
forecast.
Côte d'Ivoire & Ghana cocoa zones trace the district/region-level plantation distribution of Abu et al. (2020),
“Cocoa Map for Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana” (PANGAEA doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.917473; 10 m Sentinel-1/2 raster,
3.69 / 2.15 Mha) — vector approximations of the published district extent, not the per-pixel raster.
Indonesia cocoa zones trace the provincial smallholder distribution in BPS “Indonesian Cocoa Statistics 2023”
across every producing island: the four Sulawesi provinces (≈ 60% of national output), Sumatra (Lampung, North &
West Sumatra, Aceh ≈ 25%), East Java, Flores (East Nusa Tenggara), East Kalimantan, Maluku/North Maluku and the
Jayapura–Keerom lowlands of Papua — vector approximations of the provincial extent, not a per-pixel raster. The whole
archipelago renders; use the on-map zoom (drag, wheel or the ± buttons) to inspect individual island belts. Ecuador
cocoa zones remain illustrative.
Admin boundaries: datamaps TopoJSON. ENSO status: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index (note: Indonesia's ENSO rainfall
teleconnection is inverse to West Africa — El Niño dries, La Niña floods).